Good morning Hurricane Watchers! 🙂
⚠️ While we’ve been focused on Ernesto, there have been no other disturbances of note.
➡️ The current track, which is still very likely to change, still has Ernesto as a Category 1 hurricane as it enters Canadian waters.
➡️ It is unlikely any change would result in landfall or impacts in the Maritimes (NB, NS, PEI) but may still impact Southeast Newfoundland.
➡️ Ernesto is forecasted to remain a Category 1 Hurricane is it moves to (or just east of) Newfoundland. (140kph 9am Monday to 120kph 9pm Monday).
➡️ Some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend before weakening begins on Monday. (NOAA)
➡️ Ernesto may come close to Southeast Newfoundland as it transitions from a Category 1 Hurricane to a post-tropical depression.
➡️ Southeast Newfoundland should monitor forecasts, can expect “at least some winds, rain and certainly waves along the coast.” (The Weather Channel, U.S.)
⚠️ Especially for those in Southeast Newfoundland, it remains prudent to monitor the forecasts throughout the weekend.
From NOAA Forecasting and Advisories…
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 64.6 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. A faster northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to slowly depart Bermuda today and move near or east of Newfoundland Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today. Some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend before weakening begins on Monday.
Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 974 mb (28.76 inches).
